not return. That’s the conclusion of one of Israel’s leading think tanks, the Institute for national Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
I’ve been talking about a historic realignment in the Middle East that could well take decades to shake out, and it won’t be pretty. There is little the West (or Russia) can do to stop it or shape it, beyond helping the refugees–and that, in itself, is a noble and useful goal.
This article outlines the reasons why Syria cannot be put back together again. What the analysis lacks is an assessment or whether that would even have been a good idea. The Syria we grew up with was a terror state run by cruel despots–Hafez Assad and his son Bashar. What will replace that regime, eventually, may not be better for the people of Syria or the region, but it’s hard to imagine it would be worse.
There is a tendency among analysts to pick a point in history and declare it the ideal, something to be restored. That is usually the wrong approach. This article is the first serious one I’ve seen, outside this website, that moves toward acknowledging that fact.